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How to optimize your game on crucial points?

On the one hand, every point in a match is important because it leads you closer to the gain of the game, the set or the match. But on the other hand, there might be some important points during the game that might change the momentum of the game.

If there are any momentum points in a game, it would be nice to play your best game plan at that time right? This study will help you to recognise the key scores and to develop your own strategy at that moment.

Let's set the research

To make that research, 126 ATP players were analyzed. All of them are or have been at least one week in the top 100 during the period of 2015 & 2016. Between a minimum of 200 to more than 2000 games were registered per player for that analysis. In total, this is more than 50’000 games registered for this research. After each game, the course of the game was written. Every points played were registered like the following example: win/lose/lose/win/win/win. Based on that, every possible tennis score gave a general probability to win or lose the game.

To calculate the value & importance of every point, every score was taken separately (0-0, 15-0, 0-15…). Then, the difference between winning or losing the point from this given score was calculated according to the general probability of every possible tennis score.

Example: the score is 30-30. If the player wins the next point, he will have X% of chances to win the game at 40-30. If the player loses the next point, he will have Y% of chances to win the game at 30-40. X% - Y% gives us a value. The bigger this % is, the more important was the point before!

So what do you think? Every point won has the same value & importance or there are some key scores that can change the course of the game?


According to the score, the next point to come doesn’t have the same value & importance. The probability to win the game between winning or losing the next point can fluctuate from 10.2% to 72.5%. So the answer is definitely NO!

We can clearly see that this is when the server is behind (or tied) that the next point to come is the most important.

Let’s Optimize your game on the three most important scores

As we could see, 30-40 or advantage return, deuce & 15-30 are the three most important scores in the tennis game. Winning the point at that moment of the game can be crucial and can easily change the momentum. That’s why you really want to play your best tennis at one of these scores!

The first key to optimize your game at one of these key scores is to become aware of what is going on. You have to deeply understand that these scores are really important and can easily turn a defeat into a victory if you deal well with them.