MPF (1/5) - The True Meaning of 1%

February 4, 2019

 Translated from the French version, click here to get the French PDF

 

Introduction

After 11 years of ATP top 200 match analysis, TennisProfiler joined force with Fabrice Sbarro to create MPF (Match Preparation based on Fluctuations). It's not more than 500'000 points analyzed manually to make such a process. 

 

MBF is a product only for ATP players ranked among the 100 or 150 best in the world. Its goal is to improve the performance during the match of any of these players with specific game plans according to their rivals. 

 

The purpose of MPF is to give any ATP player ranked in the top 150 an extra 1% of points won during his season. To do so TennisProfiler uses a gigantic scientific tennis research made by Fabrice Sbarro. This study is about statistics fluctuations of every shot (serve, return, forehand, backhand & volley) between the victories & the defeats of each player of the top 100.

 

MPF will be introduced to you in 5 different articles. The first article (this one) is about the true meaning of 1%. After, the fluctuation process will be explained globally then specifically to each shot (part 2 & 3). Concrete exemples of MPF will complete the theory (part 4). Eventually, MPF price and the possible partnerships will be discussed. 

 

 

" In their respective careers, Roger Federer won 54% of his total points played against 52% for Richard Gasquet. Only 2% separates these two athletes but also 20 grand slam titles

 

First things first! We can't explain MPF without going through a very important fact:  in terms of percentage of points won during the season or their career there is very little difference between the top ATP players and the rest. The following chart will show you the category of ATP players and their percentage of points won. The percentages were slightly simplified (± 0,2%) but are still very close to reality. These ratios can also differ for the same player from one year to another due to his results. That's why the percentages on the following chart represent more the career of the players than their current year. 

This chart gives us a clear view of the difference of points won during their career between the top players and the rest. As you can see only 6% separates Roger Federer, the GOAT, to his compatriot Henri Laaksonen (when he plays on the main tour, not on the Challenger tour). 

 

One of MPF's first goal is to become conscious. From that angle, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic & Rafael Nadal are the best in our sport but the rest of the pack is much closer that we could think. Winning 1% more points, as MPF suggests, can lead to major changes in a player career. 

 

 

" If a player wins 52,5% of his points during the season, he will win 75% of his matches "

 

Knowing that the gap between the top 3 and the Challenger players is so small in terms of ratio of points won, we now want to show you what this difference means in terms of matches win/loss ratio. Once again, the percentages were slightly simplified to make it clearer (±3%). 

 

Only 6% separates the top players to an average Challenger player but these 6% in terms of win/loss matches ratio (on the main tour) represents 55%. Seen from that angle, 6% more points won during a season means much more. As a consequence, if MPF gives to a player 1% more points, this player will win 10% more matches. 

 

 " When money is concerned, there is a 14'750'000.- dollars difference per year between a player who won 85% of his matches and an average Challenger player. "

 

The logical continuation of our approach is to connect the percentage of matches won to the annual income of the ATP players. It was a bit more complex to display exact results because it all depended of where the matches were won. A match won at Roland Garros brings back much more money than a match won at the ATP 250 in Bastad for instance. The Challenger's tournaments income weren't put in that chart because they represent on average 10 times less money than an ATP tournaments...

Until now the two first charts were linears but this one is exponential. An 10% extra matches won can be worth up to 700'000 dollars. And as a reminder an 10% extra matches won is only 1% more points won during the season. 

 

In 2016, on the main ATP tour Nicolas Almagro won 22 matches and lost 22. So, 50% of the matches won and as a consequence 50% of the points won (±0,2%). In the meantime, his compatriot David Ferrer won 36 matches and lost 22 which means 62,1% of matches won and 51,2% of the points won (±0,2%). Only 1,2% separates these two players. 

Nicolas Almagro won that year 744'800.- dollars and David Ferrer almost the double 1'356'900. In this case, an increase of 1,2% more points won equals 612'100.- extra dollars.

 

 

We hope that reading through this first part of MPF's presentation you became more conscious of the difference that separates the best to the rest of the pack. Top players only wins 6% more points during their season that average Challenger players. When we ask around us the ratio of points won by Roger Federer during his career the answers are much closer to 65% than 54%. The emotion often prevails over the reason. In truth, only small details makes the difference between the living legends of our sport and a great deal of unknown players. But these small details can be worth millions of dollars! 

 

MPF is a coaching process that will allow any ATP players ranked in the top 150 to win 1% more points during their season. So we want to ask you the following question: do you want to earn 700'000.- more dollars next year?

 

 

Thank you for reading this article and sharing it to people that could be interested in MPF. Price and possibles partnerships will come in the last part (end of January, beginning of February) but feel free to contact us here before. 

 

 

Read MPF Second Article here - What is a Stats Fluctuation?