Federer (2) defeat Cilic (6)
and won his 20th Grand Slam Title. Discover with numbers how.
First Key of the match: Roger Federer's Serve Effectiveness
• The main reason explaining Roger Federer’s victory over Marin Cilic in the AO Final is the quality of his serve. The Swiss made 53 aces/service winners & four double faults against 42 aces/service winners & 5 double faults for the Croatian. Federer’s first serve effectiveness (% of aces/service winners on first serve) was 55% against 46% for Cilic. But Roger not only took an edge with his first serve, he also got a second serve effectiveness of 11% against only 2% for Cilic.
•In total, Federer won 12 points more than Cilic with the serve and this explains his victory at 48%.
Second Key of the match: Roger Federer's Backhand Consistency
• The second reason explaining Roger Federer’s victory over Marin Cilic in the AO Final is the backhand consistency. The Swiss made 7 points and 17 errors with this shot against 11 points and 27 mistakes for the Croatian. This is with the backhand cross that Cilic made most of his unforced errors (17). However, he got really effective when he went down the line (7 points for 5 mistakes).
• In total, Federer won 6 more points than Cilic with the backhand and this explains his victory at 24%.
Third Key of the match: Marin Cilic's Unforced Errors
• Marin Cilic not only made more mistakes than Federer with his backhand (as seen previously), he also made more errors with the return (+4), the forehand (+9) and the volley (+2). He could counterbalance these errors with a higher ratio of points with the return (+1) and the forehand (+7) but this was not enough in the end.
• In total, Federer got an edge with these shots of 7 points.
The Match explained by the Rally Lengths
• Federer got an edge of 15 points in the rallies between 1 & 2 shots (serve/return). As seen previously, he dominated Cilic by making 12 more points with the serve and 3 with the return (less errors).
• Between 3 & 4 shots, Federer won 12 more points than Cilic. The Croatian made too many mistakes with his first backhand (11) or first forehand after his serve (9). However, he was still more effective than the Swiss on the first shot after his return (+8) but this was not enough.
• Over 5 shots, Cilic won 2 more points than Federer. So, we can really say that Fed-Express won the title in the rallies below 5 shots (as usual!).
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